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Table 2 Increase in frequencies of early calving, expressed as odds-ratios (OR) for cows in herds reported as cases of Bluetongue virus serotype 8 during the 2007 outbreak and cows in herds located in the 2007 outbreak area but not reported as cases

From: Quantification of the increase in the frequency of early calving associated with late exposure to bluetongue virus serotype 8 in dairy cows: implications for syndromic surveillance

Type of herd

Category of exposurea

Reference population

Cows that calved in 2005 or 2006 belonging to herds located in the 2007 outbreak area

Cows in unexposed herds in 2007

Odds ratio

95% CI

p value

Odds ratio

95% CI

p value

Cows in case herds reported in 2007

(207–216)

1.06

0.94–1.21

0.34

1.10

0.97–1.26

0.14

(216–225)

1.18

1.05–1.33

0.01

1.20

1.06–1.35

0.004

(225–234)

1.25

1.11–1.40

<0.001

1.25

1.11–1.40

<0.001

(234–243)

1.37

1.23–1.52

<0.001

1.37

1.23–1.53

<0.001

(243–252)

1.51

1.36–1.66

<0.001

1.51

1.36–1.67

<0.001

(252–261)

1.73

1.57–1.90

<0.001

1.70

1.54–1.88

<0.001

(261–270)

1.81

1.65–1.98

<0.001

1.74

1.58–1.92

<0.001

(270–278)

2.09

1.91–2.29

<0.001

1.97

1.79–2.16

<0.001

Cows in herds located in the 2007 outbreak area but not reported as cases

(207–216)

1.18

1.05–1.33

<0.001

1.30

1.15–1.46

<0.001

(216–225)

1.27

1.14–1.42

<0.001

1.45

1.30–1.62

<0.001

(225–234)

1.25

1.12–1.38

<0.001

1.43

1.28–1.60

<0.001

(234–243)

1.30

1.18–1.44

<0.001

1.49

1.35–1.66

<0.001

(243–252)

1.25

1.14–1.38

<0.001

1.39

1.25–1.53

<0.001

(252–261)

1.23

1.12–1.35

<0.001

1.31

1.19–1.45

<0.001

(261–270)

1.42

1.30–1.56

<0.001

1.47

1.34–1.61

<0.001

(270–278)

1.34

1.22–1.47

<0.001

1.40

1.27–1.54

<0.001

  1. In both populations, cows with dates of exposure (reported or interpolated) within the last 10 weeks of gestation were selected. The different OR values correspond to each category of exposure, defined according to the dates of exposure during pregnancy. Two reference populations were considered: cows that calved in 2005 or 2006 belonging to herds located in the 2007 outbreak area, and cows in unexposed herds on 2007 (Brittany and Southwest of France)
  2. aThe values considered corresponded to multiparous Holstein cows (for time intervals for other breeds and parity, see Additional file 1).