Targeted strategies for the management of wildlife diseases: the case of brucellosis in Alpine ibex

Table 2 Generalized sensitivity indices for each parameter and each simulated output in the untargeted scenarios.

Outputs	Parameters
Outputs	\({\beta }_{IA}={\beta }_{IB}\)	\({n}_{capt}\)	\({d}_{dens}\)	\({n}_{cull}\)	\({d}_{man}\)	\({\nu }_{ven}\)	\(K\)
Seroprevalence	0.86	0.02	0.12	0.01	0.01	0.09	0.01
Probability of Brucella extinction	0.66	0.07	0.05	0.02	0.01	0.29	0.02
Population size	0.04	0.03	0.69	0.10	0.03	0.01	0.23
Number (over 10 years)
Captured	0.01	0.81	0.07	0.01	0.23	0.01	0.01
Removed	0.31	0.62	0.03	0.03	0.18	0.04	0.02
Culled	0.01	0.04	0.05	0.82	0.21	0.01	0.01
All outputs	0.28	0.28	0.18	0.18	0.12	0.05	0.05

Only the results for the seven main parameters (generalized sensitivity indices over 0.05 when considering all simulated outputs) are presented. Outputs were: (i) the seroprevalence at the end of the simulations (median and variance); (ii) the proportion of simulations where Brucella was extinct at the end of the simulation; (iii) the population size at the end of the simulations (median and variance); and the numbers of individuals (iv) captured, (v) removed (during test-and-remove protocol), and (vi) culled (without testing) after 10 years of simulations (median and variance). For each output, one or two parameters were clearly identified as key parameters with global sensitivity indices over 0.20 (in bold). Parameter definitions are provided in Table 1.

ISSN: 1297-9716