Figure 2

Results of untargeted and targeted management scenarios. A Simulated seroprevalence at the end of the simulations; B Proportion of simulations where Brucella melitensis was no longer persistent at the end of the simulations; C Population size at the end of the simulations; D total number of individuals removed and culled over the 10 years of simulations. Results obtained under the short-delay in density-dependence assumption (see Additional file 3 for the medium-delay and long-delay in density-dependence assumptions). NO: do nothing (triangle), TR: test-and-remove (points), TRC: TR combined with the culling of unmarked individuals (squares), TR(C)all: untargeted (grey), TR(C)core: targeted towards the core area (orange), TR(C)female: targeted towards females (blue), TR(C)corefemale: targeted towards both females and the core area (dark red). Except for the probability of Brucella extinction (single value), central points indicate the median, with 95% and 50% credible intervals indicated by light and dark shaded bars, respectively. Stars above bars indicate the p-values (“***”: p < 0.001; “**”: p < 0.01; “*”: p < 0.05) of the Chi-squared (B) or Mann–Whitney (A, C–D) tests comparing the result of a given strategy with its reference (indicated in the x-axis). All scenarios (except NO) had an objective of 50 individuals captured each year, and TRC had an additional objective of 20 unmarked individuals culled each year.