Figure 4From: Spread of Coxiella burnetii between dairy cattle herds in an enzootic region: modelling contributions of airborne transmission and trade Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis of model predictions. ROC analysis (data are the reference) for the simulated probability of infection (PI) by C. burnetii after 1 year of inter-herd spread, for herds initially susceptible. (A) ROC curves for herd level analysis and neighbourhoods of 1, 2, 3, 4 km. The area under the curve (AUC) for each analysis is indicated in the legend. (B, C) Variation of the four indicators [Sensitivity (Se), Specificity (Sp), Accuracy (Acc), Youden Index (J)] used for building the three criteria [Se = Sp, max(Acc), max(J)] to optimise the cut-off of PI for the classification of herds as positive and negative. Calculations were performed at herd level and for a neighbourhood of 3 km. Model Sp was assumed to be identical over the different neighbourhoods and thus is shown as a single line.Back to article page