Avian influenza infection dynamics under variable climatic conditions, viral prevalence is rainfall driven in waterfowl from temperate, south-east Australia

Table 3 Odds ratios (OR) and AICs for the best fitting linear models describing the effects of rainfall anomaly, temperature anomaly and “ENSO drought/wet” factor on bird number of five waterfowl species

Time-lag class	Region	Species	Rainfall anomaly OR	Temperature anomaly OR	“ENSO drought/wet” OR	AIC
3	WTP	Chestnut Teal	1.23	0.65*	0.83	95.25
4	WTP	Chestnut Teal	1.22	0.63**	0.82	94.06
6	VIC	Chestnut Teal	1.03	1.45*	1.02	100.44
7	VIC	Chestnut Teal	0.97	1.48*	1.07	99.94
8	VIC	Chestnut Teal	0.85	1.44*	1.17	100.34
–	SE	Chestnut Teal	–	–	–	–
12	MDB	Chestnut Teal	0.49*	0.60*	1.40	99.68
1	WTP	Australian Shelduck	1.09	0.64*	1.11	95.18
2	WTP	Australian Shelduck	1.27	0.70*	1.04	95.20
3	WTP	Australian Shelduck	1.25	0.69*	1.05	94.75
–	VIC	Australian Shelduck	–	–	–	–
–	SE	Australian Shelduck	–	–	–	–
4	MDB	Australian shelduck	1.94*	1.65*	0.99	96.13
5	MDB	Australian Shelduck	1.81*	1.74*	1.05	95.18
4	WTP	Pacific black Duck	1.12	0.63*	0.85	96.20
5	WTP	Pacific black Duck	1.26	0.68*	0.81	96.24
6	WTP	Pacific black Duck	1.27	0.67*	0.81	95.87
6	VIC	Pacific black Duck	1.01	1.48*	1.02	99.89
7	VIC	Pacific black Duck	0.90	1.53*	1.11	98.52
8	VIC	Pacific black Duck	0.77	1.49*	1.24	98.63
–	SE	Pacific black Duck	–	–	–	–
1	MDB	Pacific black Duck	0.77	0.58**	1.00	95.08
2	MDB	Pacific black Duck	0.83	0.56**	0.94	95.08
12	WTP	Grey Teal	0.81	0.52***	0.73	76.85
11	VIC	Grey Teal	0.63	0.61**	0.97	84.59
12	VIC	Grey Teal	0.74	0.58***	0.85	83.29
11	SE	Grey Teal	0.57*	0.60***	0.99	84.38
12	SE	Grey Teal	0.65	0.56***	0.86	82.86
11	MDB	Grey Teal	0.34***	0.51***	1.23	83.39
12	MDB	Grey teal	0.37***	0.48***	1.10	84.71
11	WTP	Pink-eared Duck	0.60*	0.60***	0.96	80.33
9	VIC	Pink-eared Duck	0.42***	0.66***	1.32	72.29
9	SE	Pink-eared Duck	0.38***	0.70**	1.40	74.99
9	MDB	Pink-eared Duck	0.32***	0.69*	1.44	79.13

An OR > 1 indicates a positive, whereas an OR < 1 indicates a negative effect of the explanatory variable (e.g. OR > 1 means that bird numbers were higher when rainfall anomaly was higher and OR < 1 means that bird numbers were higher when rainfall anomaly was lower). Regions: WTP (Western Treatment Plant), Victoria (VIC), South-eastern Australia (SE) and Murray–Darling Basin (MDB). Stars indicate significance levels: ***p < 0.001; **p < 0.01; *p < 0.05. Empty cells indicate that the models were not significant for that region and species, thus best models could not been selected.

ISSN: 1297-9716