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Table 6 Model relating cattle herd bovine tuberculosis risk to historic interventions, metrics of badger culling and density

From: Risk of tuberculosis cattle herd breakdowns in Ireland: effects of badger culling effort, density and historic large-scale interventions

Annual bTB status

Odds ratio

Std. Err.

z

P?>?|z|

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

Reference

1.000

     

Removal

0.527

0.086

?3.930

0.000

0.383

0.725

Non-treatment

0.997

0.103

?0.030

0.976

0.814

1.220

2007

1.000

     

2008

0.831

0.052

?2.970

0.003

0.735

0.939

2009

0.567

0.039

?8.240

0.000

0.495

0.649

2010

0.515

0.036

?9.370

0.000

0.448

0.591

2011

0.582

0.040

?7.940

0.000

0.510

0.666

2012

0.554

0.038

?8.620

0.000

0.484

0.633

Interaction terms for year*potential density^

   

2007*dens.

2.065

0.878

1.700

0.088

0.897

4.753

2008*dens.

2.672

1.582

1.660

0.097

0.837

8.526

2009*dens.

0.633

0.417

?0.700

0.487

0.174

2.300

2010*dens.

1.075

0.727

0.110

0.915

0.286

4.044

2011*dens.

0.210

0.136

?2.420

0.016

0.059

0.745

2012*dens.

0.145

0.094

?2.980

0.003

0.041

0.516

Previous history

2.404

0.118

17.920

0.000

2.184

2.646

Log(Herdsize)

1.916

0.048

26.170

0.000

1.825

2.011

Cull(spline1)

3.220

0.336

11.220

0.000

2.625

3.950

Interaction terms for County*culling intensity >0.5~

   

CK*spline2

0.979

0.019

?1.110

0.267

0.942

1.017

DN*spline2

1.088

0.030

3.100

0.002

1.032

1.148

KK*spline2

0.839

0.053

?2.760

0.006

0.740

0.950

MN*spline2

0.997

0.049

?0.060

0.951

0.905

1.099

Cork (CK)

1.000

     

Donegal (DN)

0.798

0.065

?2.780

0.005

0.681

0.935

Kilkenny (KK)

1.165

0.071

2.500

0.012

1.033

1.313

Monaghan (MN)

0.740

0.063

?3.550

0.000

0.627

0.874

  1. ^ Overall interaction: ?2 (df: 5) =26.21; Prob?>??2?<?0.001; ~ Overall interaction: ?2 (df: 3) =20.77; Prob?>??2?<?0.001.
  2. Final multivariable model relating factors that influence cattle herd breakdowns in four counties in Ireland in 2007–2012.