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Table 3 Overview of model outputs

From: Dairy goat demography and Q fever infection dynamics

Model Model code Abortion incidence Environmental bacterial load Extinction rate (%) Time to extinction (weeks) Prevalence of shedders (%)
   mean median, mean median,   mean median, mean median,
    5-95%   5-95%    5-95%   5-95%
Variations of the model for goat and cow farm infection
m1 770 goats 6.2 6.1, 4.4–8.1 100 99, 53–142 29 145 111, 18–296 30 30, 25–34
m2 50 goats 5.6 6.0, 0–12 10 10, 4–14 32 162 144, 21–366 26 26, 7–45
m3 770 cows 8.0 7.9, 6.6–9.8 269 277, 184–320 13 67 51, 16–156 44 45, 40–48
m4 50 cows 7.1 6.0, 2.0–14 21 20, 14–28 21 102 72, 27–225 43 42, 28–57
Scenarios of sensitivity analysis of goat farm infection
s1 TimeIntro 6.1 6.4, 4.4–8.1 83 90, 40–119 40 102 99, 1–280 29 30, 23–34
s2 TimeBirth 6.2 6.2, 4.2–8.5 82 88, 23–116 50 74 37, 5–219 29 30, 24–34
s3 ProbAbUp 24.8 24.8, 22–27.3 229 231, 209–246 4 25 24, 7–44 33 33, 29–36
s4 ProbAbLow 3.5 3.5, 2.4–4.7 82 85, 22–126 34 128 106, 21–317 28 29, 21–34
s5 ProbInfUp 8.3 8.3, 6.8–10.1 267 267, 255–282 1 1 1 52 52, 49–55
s6 NoYoung 6.4 6.4, 3.6–8.3 86 92, 18–129 34 172 162, 42–333 28 29, 15–35
  1. Abortion incidence: incidence of abortions during the 10th simulation year in non-extinct herds; Environmental load AUC: area under the curve of the environmental load over 10 years simulation in non-extinct herds, expressed as percentage of the mean AUC of model m1; Ext. rate (%): percentage of herds with extinction of infection after 10 years simulation; Time to extinction: the number of weeks from introduction of an infected animal in the herd until extinction of the infection; Prevalence of shedders: prevalence of shedders at t = 520 in non-extinct herds.