Controlling disease outbreaks in wildlife using limited culling: modelling classical swine fever incursions in wild pigs in Australia

Table 5 The influence of changing parameters relative to baseline (multiplication factor, 1 = best estimate) on Classical Swine Fever outbreak size (000 km²) in wild pigs in north-west Australia

	Parameter
Multiplication factor	Probability of Transmission	Mortality probability	Density	Movers ²	Linear distance	Home range	Reduction in movement when sick
0.25	1.522	12.097	0	6.578	0.023	9.793	7.236
0.5	3.362	12.393	0.004	8.393	0.196	3.176	8.406
0.75	5.170	8.470	1.360	10.502	0.126	8.667	7.324
1 (baseline)	5.979	5.979	5.979	5.979	5.979	5.979	5.979
1.5	8.499¹	5.960	20.46	10.242	25.180	16.832	9.645
2	NA	2.009	28.513	8.509	31.352	8.824	11.088

¹Multiplication factor = 1.33 to ensure probability remained less than 1 (probability = 0.99).
²Proportion of herds able to disperse away from their starting home range.

ISSN: 1297-9716