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Table 3 Model outputs recorded during Classical Swine Fever simulations in wild pigs in north-west Australia

From: Controlling disease outbreaks in wildlife using limited culling: modelling classical swine fever incursions in wild pigs in Australia

Output measure Description Best model prediction Median (95% probability intervals)
  Outbreak description of highly virulent strain (without control or surveillance)  
Proportion of introductions established (%) The proportion of all simulations where a single point introduction leads to disease establishment (disease spreads to more than one herd) 0.98 (0.95-1.00)
Days to disease fade out The number of days in which infected herds are present 759 (180-1424)
Infected herds The total number of herds infected throughout the simulation 1302 (293-2707)
Total herds extirpated The number of herds where every member died due to infection with CSF 563 (138-1146)
Incidence rate The number of herds infected/day 1.86(1.14-2.73)
Area infected (km2) The area of a minimum convex hull established around every infected herd throughout the epidemic 5979 (580-20537)
Area per day (km2/day) The area of a minimum convex hull established around every infected herd throughout the epidemic/days of epidemic 9 (3-17)
Cumulative incidence Proportion of herds infected (%) = The total number of infected herds/total herds in contiguous population 33 (14-70)
  Low Virulence strain of CSF (without control or surveillance)  
Proportion of introductions established (%) As above 0.97 (0.94-1.00)
Days to disease fade out   976 (468-1442)
Infected herds   1829 (951-2825)
Total herds extirpated   184(96-288)
Incidence rate   1.84(1.24-2.63)
Area infected (km2)   11061 (2741-24393)
Area per day (km2/day)   11 (0-18)
Cumulative incidence   46 (23-84)
  Non-spatial model  
Proportion of introductions established (%) As above 100%
Days to disease fade out   87 (86-90)
Infected herds   5304
Total herds extirpated   2234 (2205-2267)
Incidence rate   61 (58-62)
Area infected (km2)   NA
Area per day (km2/day)   NA
Cumulative incidence   100%
  1. Best parameter estimates (most likely scenario), low virulence and non-spatial CSF scenarios shown.