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Table 3 Model outputs recorded during Classical Swine Fever simulations in wild pigs in north-west Australia

From: Controlling disease outbreaks in wildlife using limited culling: modelling classical swine fever incursions in wild pigs in Australia

Output measure

Description

Best model prediction Median (95% probability intervals)

 

Outbreak description of highly virulent strain (without control or surveillance)

 

Proportion of introductions established (%)

The proportion of all simulations where a single point introduction leads to disease establishment (disease spreads to more than one herd)

0.98 (0.95-1.00)

Days to disease fade out

The number of days in which infected herds are present

759 (180-1424)

Infected herds

The total number of herds infected throughout the simulation

1302 (293-2707)

Total herds extirpated

The number of herds where every member died due to infection with CSF

563 (138-1146)

Incidence rate

The number of herds infected/day

1.86(1.14-2.73)

Area infected (km2)

The area of a minimum convex hull established around every infected herd throughout the epidemic

5979 (580-20537)

Area per day (km2/day)

The area of a minimum convex hull established around every infected herd throughout the epidemic/days of epidemic

9 (3-17)

Cumulative incidence

Proportion of herds infected (%) = The total number of infected herds/total herds in contiguous population

33 (14-70)

 

Low Virulence strain of CSF (without control or surveillance)

 

Proportion of introductions established (%)

As above

0.97 (0.94-1.00)

Days to disease fade out

 

976 (468-1442)

Infected herds

 

1829 (951-2825)

Total herds extirpated

 

184(96-288)

Incidence rate

 

1.84(1.24-2.63)

Area infected (km2)

 

11061 (2741-24393)

Area per day (km2/day)

 

11 (0-18)

Cumulative incidence

 

46 (23-84)

 

Non-spatial model

 

Proportion of introductions established (%)

As above

100%

Days to disease fade out

 

87 (86-90)

Infected herds

 

5304

Total herds extirpated

 

2234 (2205-2267)

Incidence rate

 

61 (58-62)

Area infected (km2)

 

NA

Area per day (km2/day)

 

NA

Cumulative incidence

 

100%

  1. Best parameter estimates (most likely scenario), low virulence and non-spatial CSF scenarios shown.