Mathematical modelling and evaluation of the different routes of transmission of lumpy skin disease virus

Table 3 Assessment of transmission parameters for the outbreak of LSD in Ein-Zurim in 2006^¥

	*alpha* (Indirect contact)	*beta* (direct contact)	*gamma* (transmission between lactating groups)	*delta* (bordering groups)	*eta*(density)	*teta*(age)	nu(lactation status)	Constant (c)	mu	*sigma*	L*	p-value^€
*alpha+beta+ gamma+delta*	0.026	0.006	0.011	0.001				0.2	7	1.741	816.31	0.65
*alpha+beta+ gamma*	0.026	0.006	0.011					0.2	7	1.724	816.51	0.03
*alpha+beta*	0.032	0.008						0.2	7	1.797	820.98	0.0004
*alpha+gamma*	0.028		0.011					0.27	7	1.008	827.32	0.015
*alpha* ^§	0.038							0.22	7	1.231	833.22
*alpha+beta+ gamma+eta* (Eq. 4)	0.023	0.0116	0.0069		-0.0032			0.2	7	1.88	815.88	0.43
*alpha+beta+ gamma+teta* (Eq. 5)	0.024	0.008	0.009			0.0013		0.2	7	1.79	815.82	0.41
*alpha+beta+ gamma+nu* (Eq. 6)	0.024	0.0088	0.0079				0.0044	0.2	7	1.48	816.25	0.61
*alpha+beta+nu*	0.023	0.0155					0.0002	0.2	7	1.85	817.24	0.053
*alpha+beta+ gamma+delta* linear increase in the number of incident cases until day 16	0.031	0.014	0.008	0.000005				0.2	7	2.19	829.5
*alpha+beta+ gamma+delta* ( *beta+ gamma+delta* ) are associated with incidence	0.033	0.008	0.002	0.000014				0.2	7	1.81	824.58

^¥ Unless stated otherwise, a constant incidence prior to day 16 was assumed and all transmission parameters were associated with the number of cases and not incidence.
* L = -2log (likelihood).
€ p-value for the addition of the last parameter.
§ The model without alpha has a likelihood of infinity.

ISSN: 1297-9716