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Table 3 Assessment of transmission parameters for the outbreak of LSD in Ein-Zurim in 2006¥

From: Mathematical modelling and evaluation of the different routes of transmission of lumpy skin disease virus

  alpha
(Indirect contact)
beta
(direct contact)
gamma
(transmission between lactating groups)
delta
(bordering groups)
eta(density) teta(age) nu(lactation status) Constant (c) mu sigma L* p-value
alpha+beta+ gamma+delta 0.026 0.006 0.011 0.001     0.2 7 1.741 816.31 0.65
alpha+beta+ gamma 0.026 0.006 0.011      0.2 7 1.724 816.51 0.03
alpha+beta 0.032 0.008       0.2 7 1.797 820.98 0.0004
alpha+gamma 0.028   0.011      0.27 7 1.008 827.32 0.015
alpha § 0.038        0.22 7 1.231 833.22  
alpha+beta+ gamma+eta (Eq. 4) 0.023 0.0116 0.0069   -0.0032    0.2 7 1.88 815.88 0.43
alpha+beta+ gamma+teta (Eq. 5) 0.024 0.008 0.009    0.0013   0.2 7 1.79 815.82 0.41
alpha+beta+ gamma+nu (Eq. 6) 0.024 0.0088 0.0079     0.0044 0.2 7 1.48 816.25 0.61
alpha+beta+nu 0.023 0.0155      0.0002 0.2 7 1.85 817.24 0.053
alpha+beta+ gamma+delta linear increase in the number of incident cases until day 16 0.031 0.014 0.008 0.000005     0.2 7 2.19 829.5  
alpha+beta+ gamma+delta ( beta+ gamma+delta ) are associated with incidence 0.033 0.008 0.002 0.000014     0.2 7 1.81 824.58  
  1. ¥ Unless stated otherwise, a constant incidence prior to day 16 was assumed and all transmission parameters were associated with the number of cases and not incidence.
  2. * L = -2log (likelihood).
  3. p-value for the addition of the last parameter.
  4. § The model without alpha has a likelihood of infinity.