Skip to main content

Table 3 Overview of results obtained with various scenarios used in the sensitivity analysis

From: Risk based culling for highly infectious diseases of livestock

Scenario

Culling strategy

Culled infected

Total farms culled

Epidemic in days

Decreased capacity

Risk, thresh = 0.001

374

(329;420)

996

(964;1027)

72

(71;74)

 

Ring 1 km, In - > Out 1)

+46

(32;60)

+223

(209;237)

+4

(3;5)

 

Ring 3 km, In - > Out 2)

+57

(43;71)

+704

(690;718)

+4

(3;5)

Increased capacity

Risk, thresh = 0.001

161

(145;176)

1064

(1038;1090)

47

(46;47)

 

Ring 1 km, In - > Out

+20

(15;25)

-70

(-83;-56)

+8

(7;9)

 

Ring 3 km, In - > Out

+16

(11;21)

+410

(396;423)

+1

(0;2)

Increased R0

Risk, thresh = 0.001

460

(412;507)

1250

(1224;1276)

65

(64;66)

 

Ring 1 km, In - > Out

+64

(50;77)

+108

(98;119)

+5

(4;6)

 

Ring 3 km, In - > Out

+61

(47;74)

+543

(532;553)

+2

(1;3)

Decreased R0

Risk, thresh = 0.001

100

(91;110)

798

(771;825)

44

(43;45)

 

Ring 1 km, In - > Out

+13

(9;16)

+4

(-12;20)

+7

(6;9)

 

Ring 3 km, In - > Out

+14

(10;17)

+509

(493;525)

+3

(1;4)

Increased tail

Risk, thresh = 0.001

183

(169;197)

1076

(1050;1103)

59

(58;60)

 

Ring 1 km, In - > Out

+23

(16;30)

+40

(25;55)

+5

(4;6)

 

Ring 3 km, In - > Out

+18

(11;25)

+632

(617;647)

+2

(1;3)

Decreased tail

Risk, thresh = 0.001

220

193;247

958

(986;929)

50

(49;51)

 

Ring 1 km, In - > Out

+35

(27;42)

+34

(19;48)

+7

(6;8)

 

Ring 3 km, In - > Out

+29

(21;36)

+396

(381;411)

+3

(2;4)

Less clustering

Risk, thresh = 0.001

191

(175;206)

1003

(983;1023)

55

(54;56)

 

Ring 1 km, In - > Out

+33

(23;44)

-14

(-32;4)

+8

(7;10)

 

Ring 3 km, In - > Out

+31

(21;42)

+443

(426;461)

+3

(1;4)

More clustering

Risk, thresh = 0.001

277

(222;332)

1127

(1079;1176)

57

(55;59)

 

Ring 1 km, In - > Out

+43

(31;55)

+186

(163;210)

+6

(4;7)

 

Ring 3 km, In - > Out

+38

(26;50)

+624

(601;648)

+4

(3;5)

Misspecified kernel

Risk, thresh = 0.001

255

(231;278)

1095

(1069;1121)

59

(58;60)

 

Ring 1 km, In - > Out

+24

(15;32)

+19

(6;32)

+4

(3;5)

 

Ring 3 km, In - > Out

+25

(16;33)

+397

(384;410)

+1

(0;2)

  1. Brackets indicate 95% confidence interval.
  2. The results of "Risk based, thresh = 0.001" with confidence bounds were estimated as the intercept of a mixed model that incorporated maps as a random effect and culling strategy as a fixed effect. The "+" or "-" for 1 km and 3 km ring culling indicate the difference compared to "Risk based, thresh = 0.001". Confidence bounds for 1 km and 3 km ring are also around the difference.
  3. 1) In - > Out: culling starts with farms that are closest to the infected farm.
  4. 2) Out - > In: culling starts with farms within the ring that are farthest from the infected farm.
Back to article page

Veterinary Research

ISSN: 1297-9716