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Table 2 Simulation results for the various risk based and ring culling strategies in the base scenario

From: Risk based culling for highly infectious diseases of livestock

Culling strategy

Culled infected

Total farms culled

Epidemic in days

Risk based, thresh = 0.001

216

(194;239)

958

(920;971)

57

(58;59)

Risk based, thresh = 0.0005

-3

(-11;5)

+114

(100;128)

-3

(-4;-2)

Risk based, thresh = 0.005

+3

(-5;11)

-72

(-86;-58)

+3

(2;4)

Risk based, thresh = 0.001/3 km ring1)

+5

(-3;13)

+82

(68;96)

-2

(-3;-1)

Ring 1 km, In - > Out 2)

+32

(24;40)

+125

(111;139)

+4

(3;5)

Ring 3 km, In - > Out 3)

+27

(19;35)

+597

(583;611)

+0

(-1;1)

Ring 3 km, Out - > In

+111

(103;119)

+674

(660;688)

+7

(6;8)

  1. Brackets indicate 95% confidence interval.
  2. The results of "Risk based, thresh = 0.001" with confidence bounds were estimated as the intercept of a mixed model that incorporated maps as a random effect and culling strategy as a fixed effect. The "+" or "-" for the alternative strategies indicate the difference compared to "Risk based, thresh = 0.001". Confidence bounds for the alternative strategies are also around the difference.
  3. 1) Risk based culling in a 3 km ring.
  4. 2) In - > Out: culling starts with farms that are closest to the infected farm.
  5. 3) Out - > In: culling starts with farms within the ring that are farthest from the infected farm.