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Table 3 Results: Mean probabilities per vector for the different pathways and months of emergence of Culicoides given exophilic and endophilic behaviour.

From: Quantitative assessment of the probability of bluetongue virus overwintering by horizontal transmission: application to Germany

Results per vector Mean probability Ia Mean probability Ib Mean probability IIIa Mean probability IIIb Mean probability (per month)
  Exophilic Endophilic Exophilic Endophilic Exophilic Endophilic Exophilic Endophilic Exophilic Endophilic
November 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
December 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
January NA NA 0 0 NA NA 0 1.2 × 10-8 0 1.2 × 10-8
February NA NA 5.9 × 10-8 5.5 × 10-8 NA NA 0 6.7 × 10-8 5.9 × 10-8 1.2 × 10-7
March NA NA 9.2 × 10-8 8.7 × 10-8 NA NA 0 2.1 × 10-7 9.2 × 10-8 3.0 × 10-7
April NA NA 1.1 × 10-7 1.6 × 10-7 NA NA 0 5.1 × 10-9 1.1 × 10-7 1.6 × 10-7
Weighted-results Probability Ia Probability Ib Probability IIIa Probability IIIb Total months
  Exophilic Endophilic Exophilic Endophilic Exophilic Endophilic Exophilic Endophilic Exophilic Endophilic
November 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
December 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
January NA NA 0 0 NA NA 0 1.4 × 10-9 0 1.4 × 10-9
February NA NA 1.6 × 10-10 6.2 × 10-11 NA NA 0 1.3 × 10-9 1.6 × 10-10 1.3 × 10-9
March NA NA 1.2 × 10-9 1.6 × 10-9 NA NA 0 3.6 × 10-9 1.2 × 10-9 5.1 × 10-9
April NA NA 9.4 × 10-9 2.3 × 10-8 NA NA 0 1.8 × 10-9 9.4 × 10-9 2.5 × 10-8
Mean probability (per pathway) 0 0 1.1 × 10 -8 2.4 × 10 -8 0 0 0 8.0 × 10 -9 1.1 × 10 -8 3.2 × 10 -8
  1. Weighted mean probabilities for the different pathways and months of emergence of Culicoides given exophilic and endophilic behaviour. Mean probabilities for the different months for pathway II were zero, and therefore are not shown in the table.
  2. NA: Not applicable (in pathways Ia and IIIa the vectors have to get infected before the start of the PLVA and therefore only apply to vectors emerged before the start of the PLVA, i.e. December)