Skip to main content

Table 2 Specific input parameters (Germany 2006-2007)

From: Quantitative assessment of the probability of bluetongue virus overwintering by horizontal transmission: application to Germany

Description of model input parameter

Value

Source

Mean daily temperatures (°C)

Various (see Figure 3)

1

Monthly proportion of Culicoides captures during study period (November to April)

Nov.: 0.977

Dec.: 0.017

Jan.: 0.002

Feb.: 0.001

Mar.: 0.001

Apr.: 0.001

[5]

Monthly proportion of Culicoides captured outdoors (versus indoors)

Nov.: 0.50

Dec.: 0.40

Jan.: 0.27

Feb.: 0.12

Mar.: 0.32

Apr.: 0.17

[5]

Cattle population in North Rhine-Westphalia (H c )

1 346 488

2

Sheep population in North Rhine-Westphalia (H s )

199 762

2

Monthly cumulative incidence of cattle farms (CI ci )

Aug. 2006: 1.8 × 10-3

Sep. 2006: 3.0 × 10-3

Oct. 2006: 1.4 × 10-2

Nov. 2006: 8.5 × 10-3

Dec. 2006: 2.0 × 10-3

Jan. 2007: 4.2 × 10-3

Feb.2007: 2.7 × 10-3

Mar. 2007: 1.0 × 10-3

Apr. 2007: 1.6 × 10-3

2, 3

Monthly cumulative incidence of sheep farms (CI si )

Sep. 2006: 1.1 × 10-2

Oct. 2006: 4.6 × 10-2

Nov. 2006: 2.5 × 10-2

Dec. 2006: 4.0 × 10-3

Jan. 2007: 0

Feb. 2007: 0

Mar. 2007: 0

Apr. 2007: 0

2, 3

Proportion of immune cattle

0.01

Model estimation

Proportion of immune sheep

0.04

Model estimation

  1. 1Anonymous: Bundesministerium für Verkher, Bau und Stadtentwicklung. Klimadaten Deutschland. http://www.dwd.de/bvbw/appmanager/bvbw/dwdwwwDesktop? [consulted 6 August 2009]
  2. 2Anonymous: Statische Ämter des Bundes und der Länder. https://www.regionalstatistik.de/ [consulted 6 August 2009]
  3. 3Anonymous: EU. Food Safety Regulatory Committees: Standing Committee on the Food Chain and Animal Health (SCFCAH). http://ec.europa.eu/food/committees/regulatory/scfcah/animal_health/presentations_en.htm#03042009 [consulted 8 August 2009]
  4. The proportion of immune cattle and sheep were obtained based on the estimated number of cattle and sheep infected in 2006 (natural immunity) as vaccination did not start until 2008