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Table 4 Proportion (%) of runs having 0 to more than 3 clinically affected and/or subclinically infected animals (Is) detected (sensitivity of 0.5 and specificity of 1 for the tests used for Is animals detection) after 1 to 5 years of simulation in herds with spontaneous fadeout or persistent infection

From: Predicting fadeout versus persistence of paratuberculosis in a dairy cattle herd for management and control purposes: a modelling study

  Cumulated number of animals (nr) % of runs with nr clinically affected animals % of runs with nr clinically affected & detected subclinically infected animals
   Time (in years) Time (in years)
   1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5
Proportion among herds with fadeout (282 runs) 0 75 67 64 62 62 40 37 37 35 35
  1 25 33 36 36 35 50 48 45 45 44
  2 0 0 0 1 2 10 14 17 17 17
  ≥ 3 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 3 4
Proportion among persistently infected herds (118 runs) 0 48 23 9 5 2 24 8 2 1 1
  1 52 75 67 40 18 46 51 30 14 3
  2 0 2 15 15 19 60 34 25 22 8
  ≥ 3 0 0 9 40 61 0 7 43 63 88