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Table 3 Summary of published data and modelled distributions of the quantities of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map) shed, depending on the health state (X) and the route of transmission (r) in a Map infection dynamics model within a structured dairy herd

From: Predicting fadeout versus persistence of paratuberculosis in a dairy cattle herd for management and control purposes: a modelling study

Route of transmission (r) Health state (X) Literature Model
   Minimal value Maximal value Mean value Source F( X ,r)
Map direct shedding in milk and colostrum (Map/L) Subclinically infected 2.2 × 104 8.8 × 104 5 × 104 [39] 105 × beta(8,8)
  Clinically affected - - 5 × 104 [42] 105 × beta(8,8)
Map indirect shedding in milk and colostrum (faecal contamination) (Map/L) Subclinically infected 0 2 × 1010 40 [43, 44] 1 + 103 × beta(1,25)
  Clinically affected 700 2 × 1010 14 × 104 [43, 44] 10(3 + 10 × beta(50,200))
Map shedding in faeces (Map/kg) Transiently infectious 6 × 104 6.3 × 105 3 × 105 [9] 106 × beta(8.8,19)
  Subclinically infected 104 1015 2.6 × 106 [45] 10(4 + 10 × beta(2.65,17))
  Clinically affected 108 1015 1010 [26, 46] 10(8 + 10 × beta(2,17))