Figure 3

Expected dynamic of HPAI outbreaks in France during the 2016–2017 epidemic for each scenario. Left: daily incidence of HPAI outbreaks in France during the 2016–2017 epidemic (left); right: time-varying effective reproduction number (Re, right). The six scenarios correspond to a simulated reduction of palmiped farm density in the 0% (A), 2% (B), 5% (C), 10% (D), 15% (E) and 20% (F) of the municipalities with the highest palmiped farm density. In the top left panel, the green line shows the observed farm-level daily incidence during the 2016–2017 epidemic. In each panel of the left column, solid black lines represent the median daily incidence while the darker and lighter envelopes depict their 50% and 95% prediction intervals, respectively. The numbers inserted in the left plot areas represent the absolute (Abs.size) and relative (Rel.size) expected epidemic sizes and their 50% prediction intervals. In each panel of the right column, solid lines represent the mean Re while the darker and lighter envelopes depict their 50% and 95% prediction intervals, respectively. The numbers inserted in the right plot areas represent the number of farm-to-farm transmission events (Secd) and the average number of farm-to-farm transmission event per farm infected via external sources (Secd.ratio) and their 50% prediction intervals. This figure was based on 500 stochastic simulations from the model for each scenario with the same initial conditions, with parameter values drawn from their posterior distribution (including the external transmission rate assumed to be the same as during the 2016–2017 epidemic) and with the control strategies implemented during the 2016–2017 epidemic.