Output measure | Description | Best model prediction Median (95% probability intervals) |
---|---|---|
 | Outbreak description of highly virulent strain (without control or surveillance) |  |
Proportion of introductions established (%) | The proportion of all simulations where a single point introduction leads to disease establishment (disease spreads to more than one herd) | 0.98 (0.95-1.00) |
Days to disease fade out | The number of days in which infected herds are present | 759 (180-1424) |
Infected herds | The total number of herds infected throughout the simulation | 1302 (293-2707) |
Total herds extirpated | The number of herds where every member died due to infection with CSF | 563 (138-1146) |
Incidence rate | The number of herds infected/day | 1.86(1.14-2.73) |
Area infected (km2) | The area of a minimum convex hull established around every infected herd throughout the epidemic | 5979 (580-20537) |
Area per day (km2/day) | The area of a minimum convex hull established around every infected herd throughout the epidemic/days of epidemic | 9 (3-17) |
Cumulative incidence | Proportion of herds infected (%) = The total number of infected herds/total herds in contiguous population | 33 (14-70) |
 | Low Virulence strain of CSF (without control or surveillance) |  |
Proportion of introductions established (%) | As above | 0.97 (0.94-1.00) |
Days to disease fade out | Â | 976 (468-1442) |
Infected herds | Â | 1829 (951-2825) |
Total herds extirpated | Â | 184(96-288) |
Incidence rate | Â | 1.84(1.24-2.63) |
Area infected (km2) | Â | 11061 (2741-24393) |
Area per day (km2/day) | Â | 11 (0-18) |
Cumulative incidence | Â | 46 (23-84) |
 | Non-spatial model |  |
Proportion of introductions established (%) | As above | 100% |
Days to disease fade out | Â | 87 (86-90) |
Infected herds | Â | 5304 |
Total herds extirpated | Â | 2234 (2205-2267) |
Incidence rate | Â | 61 (58-62) |
Area infected (km2) | Â | NA |
Area per day (km2/day) | Â | NA |
Cumulative incidence | Â | 100% |